大连市肺癌高发特征与大气污染的关联分析

Analysis on the relationship between air pollutants and lung cancer incidence and mortality in Dalian

关键词:  大气污染物  肺癌  发病率及死亡率  灰色关联分析

Key words:  air pollution  lung cancer  morbidity and mortality  grey correlation analysis

摘要:

目的　探讨大连市大气污染与居民肺癌高发及死亡的关联。方法　收集2000—2009年大连市大气污染资料及居民肺癌发病和死亡数据。采用灰色关联分析方法计算不同性别肺癌发病率及死亡率同污染物间绝对关联度、相对关联度和综合关联度，并做灰色定量分析。结果　NO2对大连市居民肺癌发病率及死亡率影响最大，尤其对于女性，PM10、SO2对女性肺癌死亡率影响大于男性。4年前的PM10、2年前的SO2、3年前的NO2对大连市居民肺癌死亡率的影响最密切；对肺癌发病的影响存在性别差异，3年前的PM10，2年前的SO2，3年前的NO2对男性肺癌发病影响最密切，3年前的PM10，6年前的SO2，6年前的NO2对女性肺癌发病影响最密切。结论　大连市大气污染物可影响本市居民肺癌流行，并且对肺癌的风险存在性别差异。

Abstract:

Objective To explore the correlation between the high morbidity and mortality of lung cancer and air pollution in Dalian. Methods The data of air pollutants and morbidity and mortality of lung cancer in Dalian were collected. Grey relational analysis model was used to calculate the absolute correlation degree, relative correlation degree and the comprehensive correlative degree between lung cancer’s morbidity and mortality among different gender and different pollutants, and the latent period of lung cancer caused by air pollution was quantitatively analyzed. Results The most serious pollutants affecting lung cancer incidence and mortality in Dalian was NO2, especially for women. The effect of PM10 and SO2 on mortality of female lung cancer was greater than men. The significant influence for lung cancer mortality of Dalian residents induced by PM10，SO2，NO2 was 4, 2, and 3 years ago, respectively. And the impact on lung cancer incidence induced by PM10，SO2，NO2 showed gender difference, with the most significant impact on men 3, 2, and 3 years ago, and on women 3, 6, and 6 years ago, respectively. Conclusion Air pollutants could affect prevalence of lung cancer in Dalian with gender difference.